MIT study finds business benefit of public EV chargers has declined 85%

[Yardbird]

MIT study finds business benefit of public EV chargers has declined 85%​

Story by Kenneth Schrupp
3 min read


(The Center Square) - A new MIT study found that the business foot traffic and customer spending value of providing public EV chargers declined 85% between the study’s initial 2019 period and a later 2021-2023 period. This, combined with stagnation in EV sales, has experts suggesting the EV market is reaching saturation at its current level of technology.

According to the California New Car Dealers Association, battery electric vehicle sales have been a fairly stable 21% since the latter half of 2023, despite growing sales incentives at the local, state and federal level that make it possible to buy a brand new Tesla for less than $20,000 for qualifying customers.

In the first period, the installation of EV chargers increased spending relative to similar nearby businesses without chargers by 2.1%, falling to 1.4% in the second period. In lower income areas, EV chargers increased spending 2.9% in the first period but only 0.9% in the second period, a 69% decline.

The cumulative annual gain to the area of adding one charger in 2019 was $22,813 per year, while in the second period it had dropped to $3,412 per year, an 85% decline.

Data from the study shows the change in types of chargers used made a major impact on spending: fast chargers had no significant impact on spending in the 2021-2023 period, while slow Level 2 chargers running on standard 240 volt power did — in other words, slower charging meant more time spending money at nearby businesses.

One major challenge to EV adoption is so-called range anxiety, a fear that many EV owners have that the miles available on their car dashboards won’t be enough to get them where they are going. Faster chargers, such as Tesla’s Superchargers, are designed to end range anxiety and facilitate long-range trips, but with one in five charging stations in the US not working, charging remains a challenge.

California is spending $1.7 billion quintupling its network of 10,000 public EV charging stations, but it’s unclear if the technology the state purchases will soon be obsolete, as charging speeds have been almost doubling every two years.

Another obstacle to California EV adoption is the state’s rapidly rising energy costs; the state’s energy costs more than double the national average, and two of three of the state’s energy providers are planning on raising their rates over 40 cents per kilowatt hour — the national average is 16 cents — by the end of the year. Though it is usually cheaper to drive an EV than run a car on gas, the state may soon reach what it says is the 50 cents per kilowatt hour tipping point for when gas becomes cheaper to drive than EVs.

EVs also add further stress to the electric grid, which Berkeley researchers say could need $20 billion in upgrades to meet EV charging demand.

Given that the state has a mandate that 2026 model year sales — which starts in 2025 — must be 35% zero emission, and currently are only 21.4%, it’s uncertain if the state will be able to meet its goals. If this goal is not met, automakers are held responsible; automakers can buy credits from others with extra EV credits, or face financial penalties from the state. To avoid this, some automakers may restrict sales of gas-powered vehicles.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/oth...S&cvid=d602871a36074ebfad84e39e4e1599d3&ei=49

 

[tron67j]

To no one in particular: There is a lot of data there, but a couple of items not discussed that would have an impact: 1) did the study adjust for inflation? As a whole, consumer spending decreased as a percentage of GDP during the same period so it would be interesting to know if this was factored in. 2) They didn't indicate if there was any control for the impact that inflation reporting of such in media impacted the studied consumers. Perhaps people weren't willing to spend as freely on unscheduled purchases as they were prior to 2021 due to a factor of fear. 3) What kind of items or services were purchased and are the retailers essentially the same in the studied areas.

Again, I didn't read through the entire study as I just really don't care enough to want to. But always live a good headline

 

[Docwagon1776]

To no one in particular: There is a lot of data there, but a couple of items not discussed that would have an impact: 1) did the study adjust for inflation? As a whole, consumer spending decreased as a percentage of GDP during the same period so it would be interesting to know if this was factored in. 2) They didn't indicate if there was any control for the impact that inflation reporting of such in media impacted the studied consumers. Perhaps people weren't willing to spend as freely on unscheduled purchases as they were prior to 2021 due to a factor of fear. 3) What kind of items or services were purchased and are the retailers essentially the same in the studied areas.

Again, I didn't read through the entire study as I just really don't care enough to want to. But always live a good headline

Even simpler:

If I have the only gas station in town, I'm going to attract every single customer in town who wants gas. Those people will also buy lottery tickets, energy drinks, and sno-cones.

Then fifteen more gas stations open. Unless customers also increase 15x....we all now take a smaller cut as we're sharing that customer pool I used to have to myself.

That's kind of what building out an infrastructure does. When only one restaurant and one mall has the charger, they have an advantage. When everyone does, it's just an expected amenity. It's like air conditioning in the early days of movie theaters, nobody goes to the movies for cool air any longer, it's just expected to the point it's unnoticed.

 

[skates15]

China went with stations that change your battery pack. You pull into a business the size of a jiffy lube and the battery pack is lowered and replaced with a fresh pack. Takes 10 minutes or less if I recall. An app will tell you what the wait time is at any station along with how many battery packs they have available.

 

[Docwagon1776]

China went with stations that change your battery pack. You pull into a business the size of a jiffy lube and the battery pack is lowered and replaced with a fresh pack. Takes 10 minutes or less if I recall. An app will tell you what the wait time is at any station along with how many battery packs they have available.

Probably easier when you have a centrally planned economy to force standardization, I suppose. That'd probably be a solid business model here, but the manufacturers have a profit motive to keep everything as proprietary as possible. Remember when the EU made cell phone makers stop making proprietary charging ports? We'd need something similar.