My long winded personal opinion:
Let me start by saying that I would really love to have a 4wd truck. However i got 2wd and it ended up being WAY cheaper, a bit more fuel efficient, and there's less to break (not that it happens often, but still). I paid the same for a 2008 2wd with 23,000 miles that I would have had to pay for a 2002 4wd with 150,000 miles (granted, i got a really good deal). Just a much smarter choice for my daily driver (30 miles interstate each way to work).
I spend 90% of my time driving asphalt and very light off road. It snows maybe 5-10 days a year where it gets bad, and I have the LSD and with 600lbs of sand I had no problems even on the stock good-for-a-years. I have a set of chains for backup just in case but they havent been used. It all ends up being what you ACTUALLY use it for (not just what you think you will) and where you live.
With 2wd you end up learning to look ahead and plan more carefully (which some people that go straight to 4wd dont do, and should, and end up getting stuck anyway). I have done a bit of trail riding and mild off road too, and I havent had to pull her out yet, you just have to be smart about it.
That being said, my next truck will be a 4WD, but I dont expect that for another 7-10 years or so.